Looking back
March 2026 review
As commented in our last report, March saw the start of the Iranian conflict, and the subsequent fallout of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, which in turn has caused the following issues for the recovered paper industry:
- The high increase in cost of fuel. This is affecting the logistical costs for all, as freight rates across Europe increased in March by 7% on average making the input cost to the mill higher.
- The cost of gas. This affects many paper mills across Europe as they use this as their main energy source for production. The knock-on effect is that many mills now are looking to produce as much paper / board now before the cost of energy is massively increased latter.
- The supply of recovered paper from the Middle East to the Far East has suffered because of the closure of the Straits. This has affected particularly the Indian market, and as a result we have seen an increase in buying in Europe and the UK to replace the volume that has been either unable to be transported or seen increased costs as shipping must find alternative routes.
April 2026
Packaging
1.04.00 / 1.05.00 (OCC)
As confirmed, Middle Eastern exports to Far East mills have effectively halted, prompting mills to seek alternative supply of OCC from the UK and Europe. This shift is driving an increase in demand. European mills have also increased demand because of the reasons that we stated above. Price increases for 1.04.00 & 1.05.00 – we have effectively seen increase by around £5 per tonne for both the Far East market and Europe.
4.02.00 (Fruitbox)
This saw movements of around £10 per tonne. Following in the main the movement of OCC, but a slightly increased price as the need for the strong fibre that this grade brings is in high demand.
4.01.00 & 4.03.00 (NKLS & 98/2 OCC)
The demand for these grades has increased as the mills increase production for the reasons described above.
Newsprint & Graphic Papers
Pricing remains stable for finished goods in this sector. Whilst producers look to increase the price of Newsprint – as costs are increasing – most buyers are resisting as they know that there is weak demand. The net effect on the recovered paper price is that the price for recovered paper remains stable.
However, it is anticipated by some market reporters that pricing for recovered paper will increase quickly in the coming weeks. This is because of the lack of availability of recovered paper for this sector. We are waiting to see the outcome for May.
1.11.00 (N&P’s) stability
1.06.00 (OI PAMS) stability
2.01.00 (OI News) stability
Folding Box Board 1.03.00 (grey board), 3.11.00 (HP Scan) Stable, 3.11.01 (Mixed Scan), 3.12.00 (LP Scan)
Pricing in this sector – in the main – stayed flat. We have seen increases in Scanboards for some mills in the tissue sector and Far East, but we have also seen some UK mills reduce this price. For box board cuttings, the pricing increased.
Folding box board mills pricing remains stable.
Tissues 3.10.00 (Multigrade), 2.05.00(SOW), 2.06(Coloured letters)
In March the market experienced another month of relative stability, with limited price movement reflecting subdued trading conditions. Demand from UK mills remained weak, contributing to a generally quiet domestic market environment. Operational challenges have further constrained activity, with Prudhoe Mill still on downtime and another UK mill experiencing ongoing production issues.
In the meantime, strengthening deep-sea export pricing on SOW has begun to align more closely with UK domestic levels, enabling suppliers to divert some volumes into export markets and alleviate stock pressure.
Stable pricing for April
Pulp Substitutes
The pulp substitutes market is flat with very little movement on either demand or supply.
Looking at the “pulp market”, the outlook remains weak. Pricing for “pulp” continues to fall, demand is low and there are strong stocks. The recovered paper sector mirrors the pulp situation, and, as order books are still thin, most buying is happening on a spot basis.
Pricing Predications
While we’ve seen an increase in pricing for packaging grades, this may be short-lived. With anticipated rises in energy costs, paper mills are aiming to boost production while rates remain manageable. Once these increases take effect, mills may reduce output or take downtime to control expenses. Ongoing week-to-week uncertainty in logistics costs, both for mainland transport and deep-sea shipping, is also contributing to fluctuations in pricing.