October Review
Continued low demand and high stocks at paper mills resulted in further price decreases in October. Brown packaging grades decreased by around £5 per tonne and de-ink grades reduced more slightly. Middle tissue making grades and pulp substitutes moved downwards again, this month by £10 per tonne.
The biggest development in October came from China who are now carrying out more stringent tests on dry recycled pulp imports. Following warnings about poor quality material of this grade – thought to have some mixed papers and low-quality OCC as its raw material – the authorities in China are now carrying out lab inspections which can take between four to six weeks. This development means that the source suppliers of the recovered paper expect a slowdown in orders. This, at a time when there is already a large over supply from the USA to the far east, means further price reductions can be expected.
November
Packaging
Early orders to the far east were agreed with a drop of £20 per tonne but in later rounds of price negotiation some orders were settled with a drop of only £10 per tonne so a range of prices have been made available. Crucially, material is still moving, and orders are available, so the anticipated backlog has not materialised.
Packaging mills in Europe – pricing followed suit with price drops of between €10 and €20 per tonne being quoted for all packaging grades.
Newsprint & Graphic Papers
There have been further moderate decreases around £/€5 per tonne and demand remains weak in this sector.
Folding Box Board
Low demand remains a feature in this sector, machine shuts and high stocks has seen price reductions in this sector of between €10 to €20 per tonne, depending on the grade.
Tissues
As in September, pricing in this sector reduced by at least £10 per tonne. Essity Prudhoe remains closed, and it is not anticipated to restart now until at least December 2025. Europe also has high stock, and pricing has reduced in line with the UK.
Price reductions in this sector of £10 to £15 per tonne.
Pulp Substitutes
All mills in Europe using these grades are purchasing minimal tonnages. Suppliers and merchants are reporting high stocks. Pricing will decrease but it will also be a lack of movement of volume in the particularly the Best Whites grades. Mechanical grades are currently still moving but price reductions have been confirmed.
Price reductions for Wood-free pulp subs are between £20 to £40 per tonne. Mechanical pulp subs around £5 to £10 per tonne.
Pricing prediction
December will be a difficult month for the supply side as many mills in Europe look to take downtime in the run up and at Christmas. It is likely that this will lead to further price reductions.