Our review of the paper recycling sector for May 2025.
The increased demand and subsequent price increases seen last month, have reduced with a fall in pricing for exports to the far east. However, collections of recovered paper remain extremely low across Europe and as a result this has seen stable pricing for sales into Europe for most grades, but there has been a small price reduction in OCC and Mixed papers.
The reduction in demand from the far east we believe is being driven by the political and economic instability caused by the US tariffs and potential ship charges announced in April. These announcements are driving pricing down from far east paper mills as the uncertainty has meant a lack of confidence and concerns in their ability to sell their finished goods. They are therefore reducing production in expectation that the demand for packaging will reduce, whilst far east exporters wait until there is a clear indication of what the tariffs and shipping taxes will be. Pricing into the far east has reduced around £15 per tonne.
Graphic paper pricing has remained stable, as described last month most groups don’t want to increase their pricing for recovered paper due to cheap imports of finished goods into the EU. However, with the low availability of recovered paper for this sector, prices have remained stable.
Packaging
Packaging mills in Europe
Prices have seen a small decrease, OCC 1.04.00 & 1.05.00 and mixed papers (1.02.00), between by €0 – €10 per tonne. Far east pricing has decreased as described above.
4.01.00, 4.02.00 & 4.03.00 grades pricing have seen similar price pressures. However, these grades continue to be in high demand we believe as US material is becoming more expensive and less available within the European supply chain. Pricing across Europe (Germany) has remained stable.
Newsprint & Graphic Papers
As described above, this market remains in a difficult position, but because of the poor availability of recovered paper, pricing has remained stable.
Tissues
Demand and pricing for the recovered paper in this sector (Multigrade & SOW) has also remained stable.
Pulp Substitutes
Pulp pricing no change in pricing
Pricing prediction
As reported in April low collections, alongside the new production demands in Europe will undoubtedly place pressure on pricing and supply. We believe for Europe that the strong demand will continue, and pricing will have stability whilst a close eye will be kept on the worldwide situation.
With the May Bank holidays, critically low supply in recovered paper, poor availability in logistics and continued political / economic instability, it is very difficult to predict the recovered paper market in the coming weeks. The demand for finished goods remains fragile, in all sectors and markets. Our expectation is volatility throughout the quarters.
The far east markets and their demand will be directly linked to the political / economic situation driven by the US and therefore this could swing quickly in either direction. It is our conjecture that until it is clear what tariffs and what shipping charges are to be placed on Chinese boats if any, this will determine in the medium to long term pricing. However, for the short-term demand / pricing will be volatile as the far east buyers it appears will be reactive in their purchasing. Whilst pricing for Q2 has reduced to the far east, we expect them to return with stronger pricing when the political situation becomes clearer.
Overall, for Q2 pricing we estimate to remain stable, with some fluctuations throughout the quarter, in all sectors and markets